Look for Noles to dominate at Doak

There was a time, way back in the 1990’s, when Florida State v. Miami was the type of game that captured the attention of the entire football watching nation.

Probations, an aging legend of a coach who lost a few mph’s off his fastball, some more  probations, the SEC’s rise to dominance, followed by even more probations meant the FSU-Miami game drifted off the national radar like a botched field goal drifting wide right.

Tomorrow night at Doak Campbell, however, the spotlight returns to this modern-era rivalry.

But before you get too excited, I never said it would be a good game.  I just said there would be a lot of attention.

Most of this attention will be focused on the Florida State Seminoles and their wunderkind red-shirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston.  While the Canes are undefeated coming into the weekend, don’t expect them to head back down to South Beach with smiles on their faces.

I mean, except for the fact that they’re headed back down to South Beach.

The Noles opened the week favored by three touchdowns and that wasn’t enough to entice the reluctant Miami money.  It wasn’t until the spread got as high as 22 before bets on the Canes started rolling in and there was just enough to drop the spread back down to 21 or 21.5 points (depending on which group of Vegas sharps you believe).

The oddsmakers clearly expect the Noles to continue their offensive onslaught.  FSU is ranked #3 in scoring offense at 52.6 ppg and if Miami is to have a chance of losing by fewer than 21 points -- and let’s face it, beating the spread is the best they can hope for -- they’ll have to rely on their #24 ranked rushing offense (214.7 ypg).  Even at that, the Noles are allowing just 135.7 rushing yards per game so the Canes must be ready for a turf battle.

And Miami’s only hope is the ground game because their passing game will be shut down.  The Noles are ranked #1 in the nation against the pass, allowing just 153.7 passing yards per game and their defense boasts the #4 ranked scoring defense, allowing just 13 ppg.

So even though this is the highest spread ever between two top-10 ranked teams (the next largest was Texas mnus-12 over Oklahoma in 2008) and despite the fact that Miami has covered seven of the last eight spreads against Florida State, the smart money is on the Noles.

Why?

While FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher has publicly dismissed talk of the Noles needing “style points” to position themselves ahead of Oregon in the BCS rankings, both Jimbo and his team know very well what it will take to get to Pasadena on January 6 to face little Nicky Satan’s Alabama Roll Damn Tides for the crystal football.  After all, Jimbo worked for Saban from 2000-2004 at LSU where in 2003 they teamed to bring Baton Rouge its first National Championship in 45 years.

More important than knowing what it takes is the killer instinct it takes to do it.  Florida State demonstrated that ability in spades on October 19, dismantling then-#3 ranked Clemson Tigers 51-14.

The Noles are on a mission, have the talent and killer instinct to close games out, and are playing one of their two most hated rivals in the Miami Hurricanes.  Knowing they have to shine against highly-ranked opponents, look for Winston and the Nole offense to hang half-a-hundred on the Canes, while Lamarcus Joyner, Timmy Jernigan, and the rest of a very nasty defense to hold Miami to one first half touchdown, plus another in junk time.

Final score:  55-14.

Take FSU minus 22 and bet the over.